The Conjunction Fallacy
‘Linda is thirty-one years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations.
‘Now, which alternative is more probable?
1. Linda is a bank teller, or
2. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
‘If you selected the latter, you’ve just blatantly defied logic. But it’s okay, about 85 to 90 percent of people make the same mistake. The mental sin you’ve committed is known as a conjunction fallacy. Think about it: it can’t possibly be more likely for Linda to be a bank teller and a feminist compared to just a bank teller. If you answered that she was a bank teller, she could still be a feminist, or a whole heap of other possibilities…’
That is just one possible fallacy. Here are 9 more
The Bi-Polarity Of Today’s Audiences
‘When it comes to entertainment, there is no such thing as ‘one size fits all’. If the huge success of platforms such as YouTube over the past decade has taught us anything, it is that audiences are interested in going beyond the network model of entertainment to seek out and support their own niche set of interests. This shift in consumption habits and preferences is leading to the creation of entirely new distribution channels that cater to and further develop these unique interests, giving consumers a much greater depth of content to explore, and building unique viewer identities in the process.
‘In collaboration with the minds behind The Curve Report from NBCUniversal Content Innovation Agency, PSFK is investigating the rise of specialized media channels, and the ways in which audiences are participating in these new platforms…’
When We All ‘Talk Like TED,’ TED Will Go Mum. Here’s Why
by DAVID BERREBY
‘Don’t get me wrong, I think TED talks are often terrific. TED rules—which I learned when I did this TEDx event a couple of years ago (yes, I am sorta-cool; not TED cool but TEDx cool, about which I feel a status-conscious, anxious pride)—make a good framework for presenting ideas. But if TEDification proceeds and really large numbers of people get in on the act, I am certain that two consequences will follow. First, the cachet of “talking like TED” will vanish. Then, we will hear a lot more about what’s wrong with the TED approach, as social and cultural elites respond to the need to distinguish themselves from the masses. As we have reached “peak balsamic” in the past few years, and as we have, according to these researchers, now hit “peak beard,” so we may be about to hit “peak TED.”…’
Missing boy existed only on Facebook
Now imagine if you invested your time exchanging info to help find the imaginary boy
‘Woman in custody after boy reported missing on Friday and parents turn out to be a construct of false Facebook accounts
Police searching for two-year-old Chayson Basinio knew it was a race against time to find the missing child, who had reportedly disappeared from a supermarket car park.
‘The local judge opened an inquiry for kidnapping and sequestration and police divers dredged a lake, fearing the child may have drowned.
‘As the days passed without any leads or clues, detectives at Moulins in the Auvergne prepared to warn relatives who had alerted them that they could find no trace of the boy.
‘Which, in the circumstances, was hardly surprising. In fact, neither Chayson Basinio nor his parents existed – except in the virtual world of social media…’